:Issued: 2011 Aug 02 0946 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# NOAA AR 1261, located 15° to the west of the CM and 14° to the N of the solar equator released an M1.4 peaking at 06:19UT. Radio data of Humain show a type II burst. An southward EUV-wave was visible in SDO/AIA 193 data. A first estimate of the CME speed with STEREO/COR2 data gives a speed of between 700 and 800 km/s. We cannot yet confirm with SOHO/LASCO data with the CME is a halo or partial halo, i.e. Earth directed or a glancing blow. We expect the plasma to pass along Earth on July 04-05. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 02 1254 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 10802 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Aug 2011, 1240UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 02 Aug 2011 until 04 Aug 2011) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 013 COMMENT: NOAA AR 1261, located 15° to the west of the central meridian and 14° to the N of the solar equator released an M1.4 flare peaking at 06:19UT. Radio data of Humain show a type II burst. A southward EUV-wave was visible in SDO/AIA 193 data. A first estimate of the CME speed with STEREO/COR2 data gives a speed of between 700 and 800 km/s. We cannot yet confirm with SOHO/LASCO data if the CME is a full or a partial halo, i.e. Earth directed or a glancing blow. We expect the plasma to pass along Earth on July 04-05. The event came along with an increase in the proton flux. The curve did not pass the storm threshold. The sunspots associated with NOAA AR 1261 are still changing and restructuring, although less active compared with the previous 24 hours. We estimate the probability for M-flares to be 50%, for X-flares to be 15%. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 068, BASED ON 19 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 1 Aug 2011 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 125 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 009 AK WINGST : 008 ESTIMATED AP : 007 ESTIMATED ISN : 075, BASED ON 26 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 02 0519 0619 0648 N14W15 M1.4 1N 220 CTM/1,II/1 1261 CME END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 03 1234 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 10803 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Aug 2011, 1225UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 03 Aug 2011 until 05 Aug 2011) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 006 PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 017 COMMENT: The CACTus software determined the width of the CME of Aug 02 (source region NOAA AR 1261) to be 188 degrees. The CME is directed slightly to the west. The CME passed the STEREO/HI1 field of view and is now visible in the STEREO/HI2 coronograph. NOAA AR 1261 and 1263 produced two more M-flares early this morning. No CME's are associated with the M-flares. Remark: there was a typo in the ursigram of Aug 02. The arrival of the Aug 02 CME is expected for late Aug 04, early Aug 05 (and not July). Active to minor storm conditions are possible. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 056, BASED ON 10 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 2 Aug 2011 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 122 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 006 AK WINGST : 006 ESTIMATED AP : 004 ESTIMATED ISN : 067, BASED ON 25 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 03 0308 0337 0351 N17W24 M1.1 SF 1261 03 0429 0432 0435 N15E08 M1.7 1F 130 1263 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 03 1516 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/flaremail #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Large flare alerts from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium), detected in GOES # # X-ray data # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A class M6.0 solar X-ray flare occurred on 2011/08/03 with peak time 13:47 UT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 03 1550 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A class M6.0 solar flare occurred on 2011/08/03 with peak time 13:47UT. NOAA AR 1261, located 30°W is the source region. A CME is associated with the event. A first estimated from a limited series of STEREO/COR2 images gives a speed above 1000 km/s. According to the location of the source region, we don't expect the CME to be fully Earth directed. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 03 2226 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# The CME associated with the M class M6.0 solar flare of 2011/08/03 with peak time 13:47UT is in SOHO/LASCO difference images seen as a full halo CME. The speed estimated by the software CACTus based on SOHO/LASCO images is 1165 km/s. If it doesn't decelerate, the CME should arrive in 1.5 day. Accumulation of energy with the CME of Aug 2 is possible. Storm conditions are possible on Aug 04-05. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 04 0436 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/flaremail #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Large flare alerts from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium), detected in GOES # # X-ray data # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A class M9.3 solar X-ray flare occurred on 2011/08/04 with peak time 03:57 UT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 04 0705 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A class M9.3 solar X-ray flare occurred on 2011/08/04 with peak time 03:57 UT. The source region is NOAA AR 1261 located 40° to the West of the central meridian. A CME is associated and is visible in STEREO-A/COR2 images from 04:09UT - STEREO-B/COR2 images from 04:10UT. A first estimate from STEREO/COR2 images with a CACTus-like software gives a speed above 1500 km/s. SOHO/LASCO is not yet available. The proton flux measured by the geostationary satellite GOES increased. The >=10MeV curve passed the storm level at 05:30UT. This very fast increase of proton flux is flare-driven. This is the third CME in a row (Aug 02, 03, 04). Each CME is faster then the previous one. Energy might cumulate. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 04 1227 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 10804 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Aug 2011, 1220UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 04 Aug 2011 until 06 Aug 2011) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 012 PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 030 PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 010 COMMENT: A class M9.3 solar X-ray flare occurred on 2011/08/04 with peak time 03:57 UT. The source region is NOAA AR 1261 located 40° to the West of the central meridian. A CME is associated and is visible in STEREO-A/COR2 images from 04:09UT - STEREO-B/COR2 images from 04:10UT. A first estimate from STEREO/COR2 images with a CACTus-like software gives a speed above 1500 km/s. From SOHO/LASCO, the CME seems to be a full halo. The proton flux measured by the geostationary satellite GOES increased. The >=10MeV curve passed the storm level at 05:30UT. This very fast increase of proton flux is flare-driven. This is the third CME in a row (Aug 02, 03, 04). Each CME is faster then the previous one. Energy might cumulate and might result in a geomagnetic storm at arrival. The sunspots associated with the turbulent NOAA active regions are becoming less dynamic and agitated. The probability for M-flaring activity has decreased. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 063, BASED ON 21 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 3 Aug 2011 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 120 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 007 AK WINGST : 005 ESTIMATED AP : 004 ESTIMATED ISN : 055, BASED ON 26 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 03 1317 1348 1410 N16W30 M6.0 2B 180 IV/2,III/1,II/1 1261 Halo CME 04 0341 0357 0404 N19W36 M9.3 2B 720 III/3,II/2,V/3 1261 Halo CME END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 05 0708 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# The CME associated with the M1.4 flare of Aug 02, peaking at 06:19UT arrived according to ACE data. ACE measures a speed of 400 km/s. The CME slowed down considerably on its trip through space. The total magnetic field (MF) strength carried by the CME equals 10 nT. The north-south component of the MF was also moderate. The geomagnetic response is very limited: unsettled conditions. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 05 1334 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 10805 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Aug 2011, 1257UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Aug 2011 until 07 Aug 2011) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 013 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 008 COMMENT: The CME associated with the M1.4 flare of Aug 02, peaking at 06:19UT arrived according to ACE data. ACE measures a speed of 400 km/s. The CME slowed down considerably on its trip through space. The total magnetic field (MF) strength carried by the CME equals 10 nT. The north-south component of the MF was also moderate. The geomagnetic response is very limited: unsettled conditions. Forecast: M-flares are possible but less probable: <25%. We expect two shocks but no ICME's to arrive on Aug 06. The two shocks are the glancing blow of the Aug 03 CME and the Aug 04 CME. The CME associated with the Aug 04 M-flare is a halo CME seen in LASCO/SOHO. But, it looks also to be a faint halo CME seen from STEREO-A/COR2. The geomagnetic impact is expected to be limited. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 062, BASED ON 15 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 4 Aug 2011 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 116 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 015 AK WINGST : 006 ESTIMATED AP : 005 ESTIMATED ISN : 063, BASED ON 23 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 05 1955 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/MAKalert #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GPS Space Weather Service - MAK model forecast alert # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# The MAK model forecasts a K-index of 7 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 05 2025 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# In the past few hours, a strong disturbance in the solar wind was measured by the ACE spacecraft. This is undoubtedly related to the halo CMEs leaving the Sun only yesterday. Local geomagnetic measurement suggest that we can expect a K=5 storm in the coming hours. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 05 2055 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/MAKalert #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GPS Space Weather Service - MAK model forecast alert # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# The MAK model forecasts a K-index of 7 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 06 0155 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/MAKalert #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GPS Space Weather Service - MAK model forecast alert # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# The MAK model forecasts a K-index of 6 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 06 0907 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A strong geomagnetic storm (NOAA's estimated Kp = 8) was triggered last night by the arrival of the CME activity of Aug 4. The Bz component of the IMF went down to -20nT for several hours and the solar wind speed jumped from 400 to 650 km/s. At this moment we are still at Kp=5 but the Bz component of the IMF is positive again. This suggests that the worst of the geomagnetic storm has passed and that we are returned to more normal conditions. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 06 1209 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 10806 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Aug 2011, 1159UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 06 Aug 2011 until 08 Aug 2011) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 018 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 006 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 004 COMMENT: A strong geomagnetic storm (NOAA's estimated Kp = 8) was triggered last night by the arrival of the CME activity of Aug 4. The Bz component of the IMF went down to -20nT for several hours and the solar wind speed jumped from 400 to 650 km/s. At this moment we are still at Kp=4 but the Bz component of the IMF is positive again. This suggests that the worst of the geomagnetic storm has passed and that we are returning to quiet geomagnetic conditions. Meanwhile on the Sun, the trailing side of NOAA 1263 continues to grow, while NOAA 1267 (SE quadrant) released a C4.1 flare. The combination of these two facts leads us to a just over 50% chance forecast for an M-flare in the coming day(s). TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 052, BASED ON 09 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 5 Aug 2011 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 109 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 060 AK WINGST : 045 ESTIMATED AP : 043 ESTIMATED ISN : 062, BASED ON 17 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2011 Aug 06 1209 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 10806 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Aug 2011, 1159UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 06 Aug 2011 until 08 Aug 2011) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 018 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 006 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 004 COMMENT: A strong geomagnetic storm (NOAA's estimated Kp = 8) was triggered last night by the arrival of the CME activity of Aug 4. The Bz component of the IMF went down to -20nT for several hours and the solar wind speed jumped from 400 to 650 km/s. At this moment we are still at Kp=4 but the Bz component of the IMF is positive again. This suggests that the worst of the geomagnetic storm has passed and that we are returning to quiet geomagnetic conditions. Meanwhile on the Sun, the trailing side of NOAA 1263 continues to grow, while NOAA 1267 (SE quadrant) released a C4.1 flare. The combination of these two facts leads us to a just over 50% chance forecast for an M-flare in the coming day(s). TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 052, BASED ON 09 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 5 Aug 2011 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 109 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 060 AK WINGST : 045 ESTIMATED AP : 043 ESTIMATED ISN : 062, BASED ON 17 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#