Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #11- 35 2011 August 02 at 02:42 p.m. MDT (2011 August 02 2042 UTC) **** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Summary For July 25-31 Category R1 (Minor) and R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts were observed on 27 and 30 July respectively from Region 1261. Outlook For August 3-9 Isolated R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are expected until Region 1261 rotates around the limb on 07 August. A category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm is expected on 05 August due to the effects of a CME observed early on 02 August. Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC's Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov. :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2011 Aug 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours. Region 1261 (N15W21) produced a long duration M1/1N flare at 02/0619Z with associated Type IV, Type II (estimated speed of 1067 km/s), and Tenflare (220 sfu) radio emissions. LASCO C3 imagery indicated a full halo coronal mass ejection also associated with this event. Region 1261 maintained its Fkc type spot group classification and Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1263 ((N17E08) produced multiple C-class events and maintained its Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration. Region 1260 (N15W21) remained quiet and stable. Region 1265 (N16W80) was quiet as it began to rotate off the visible disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for a major event for the next three days (03-05 August). Region 1261 and Region 1263 are both capable of producing a major event and both have a slight chance of producing an energetic proton event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. Solar wind data observed at the ACE satellite indicated a decrease in solar wind speed from 550 km/s to 450 km/s as the effects from the coronal hole high speed stream waned. The GOES 13 satellite observed an enhancement of the 10 MeV protons associated with the period's M1 flare. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (03 August). Day two is expected to be predominately quiet with chance a for isolated active conditions late in the day. Day three (05 August) is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm conditions. The increase in activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the coronal mass ejection from 02/0616Z. Due to the enhanced environment there is a chance for the 10 MeV protons to cross event thresholds with shock arrival. III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug Class M 65/65/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 15/15/20 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Aug 122 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 095 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 005/005-012/012-020/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/40/45 Minor storm 01/15/20 Major-severe storm 01/05/10 B. High Latitudes Active 05/40/45 Minor storm 01/15/20 Major-severe storm 01/05/10 Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov. Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF Serial Number: 150 Issue Time: 2011 Aug 03 1337 UTC ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5 Threshold Reached: 2011 Aug 03 1337 UTC NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov. :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2011 Aug 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1261 (N16W37) produced the largest event of the period, an M6/2B flare at 03/1348Z. It was accompanied by a 10cm radio burst (180 sfu), Type II (812 km/s) and IV emissions. A CME was subsequently observed in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 03/1409Z. Time-height extrapolation from LASCO C3 imagery indicated a speed of 624 km/s. Region 1263 (N17W06) also produced an M1/1F flare at 03/0432Z. Both regions were classified as Dki type spot groups with beta-gamma and beta-gamma-delta magnetic characteristics respectively. A weak CME was also observed in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at approximately 03/0109Z but was not expected to be geoeffective. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to remain moderate to high for the next three days (04-06 Aug) under the continued threat of a major event. Regions 1261 and 1263 are most likely to produce activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. Wind speeds at the ACE spacecraft were near 360 km/s and Bz was near zero. A slight enhancement in 10 MeV protons was observed at both ACE and the GOES-13 satellite, but remained below alert thresholds. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (04 Aug), becoming active on days 2 and 3 (05-06 Aug), with a slight chance of minor to major storms at high latitudes. The increased geomagnetic activity is associated with the arrivals of CME's from 02 and 03 August. The 10 MeV protons are likely to exceed the 10 pfu threshold with CME passage. III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug Class M 65/65/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 15/55/55 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Aug 120 Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 096 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 005/005-020/025-018/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/40/25 Minor storm 01/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/40/40 Minor storm 01/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov. Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF Serial Number: 151 Issue Time: 2011 Aug 04 0354 UTC ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5 Threshold Reached: 2011 Aug 04 0353 UTC NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov. Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #11- 1 2011 August 04 at 10:58 a.m. MDT (2011 August 04 1658 UTC) **** GEOMAGNETIC STORM EXPECTED **** Space Weather Bulletin August 4, 2011 NOAA Region 1261, very active over the past few days, produced the third of a sequence of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and Solar Radio Blackout Events early today. The net effect of that activity is convergent CMEs expected to disturb the geomagnetic field in the early hours, Universal Time (UTC) of August 5. G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm conditions are likely as well as a distinct chance of S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm levels being surpassed. NOAA 1261 is still in a prime position, relative to Earth, for more geoeffective activity in the next few days. New Solar Cycle 24 is in its early phase now, and this level activity is typical for this time interval. Expect increased space weather activity over the next few years as the Sun erupts more frequently. Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC's Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov. :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2011 Aug 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1261 (N15W49) produced a M9/2B at 0357Z. This event had associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps and a CME with an approximate speed of 2100 km/s in STEREO A COR-2 imagery. Region 1261 has appeared to decay in the southern most trailing spots and is classified as a Dai spot class with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification. Region 1263 (N17W18) has been relatively stable, only managing a few C-class flares. Region 1263 is classified as a Dki spot class with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification. New Region 1266 (N18E38) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Further M-class activity is expected from Region 1261. Region 1263 has the potential for M-class activity as well. There continues to be a chance for isolated major flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit crossed the 10 PFU threshold at 0635Z and reached a peak of 80.1 PFU at 1030Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit crossed the 1 PFU threshold at 0510Z and reached a peak of 1.8 PFU at 0740Z. This proton event was associated with the M9 flare at 0357Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor to major storm levels with a chance for severe storm periods as the effects of three CME's are expected to impact the Earth's geomagnetic field early on 05 August. Active to minor storm levels are expected on 06 August. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 07 August. III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug Class M 75/75/65 Class X 15/15/10 Proton 95/50/30 PCAF red IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Aug 116 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 096 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 050/050-030/030-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/30/25 Minor storm 35/30/15 Major-severe storm 50/20/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/30/25 Minor storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 55/30/15 Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov. Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD Serial Number: 87 Issue Time: 2011 Aug 05 1731 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected Valid From: 2011 Aug 05 1800 UTC Valid To: 2011 Aug 05 1845 UTC IP Shock Passage Observed: 2011 Aug 05 1722 UTC NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov. :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2011 Aug 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only low level C-flares were observed. Region 1261 (N14W64) was the major producer for C-flare activity. Region 1261 has decayed greatly in area and is now classified a Dsi spot class with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1263 (N16W31) has remained largely unchanged and maintains a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. New Region 1267 (S17E26) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-flares from Regions 1261 or 1263. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled levels from 04/2100-05/0300Z. Quiet levels prevailed until after 1800Z. From 1800-2100Z, minor to severe storm levels dominated. Solar wind data from ACE showed a shock-like feature passing ACE at 04/2105Z which was followed by a 20 nT sudden impulse at 04/2155Z. The solar phi angle showed rotation from negative to positive between 0300-1400Z. An additional shock passage was seen at ACE at 1722Z followed by a noticeable increase in solar wind density, velocity and magnetic field. An additional enhancement in the solar wind parameters was observed at 1834Z which include Bz fluctuation to -20 nT. Although the interpretation is not yet certain, timing analysis and model simulation suggest that the 1722Z & 1834Z enhancements are the first two of the three expected CME passages. GOES 15 observed magnetopause crossings between 1900Z-1915Z and 2000Z-2030Z. GOES 13 also observed magnetopause crossings between 2000Z-2030Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 04/0635Z reached a peak of 83 PFU at 05/1755Z and continues in progress. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach minor to major storm levels with a chance for severe storm periods on 06 August. Heightened activity is expected due to continued effects from the CMEs of 02, 03, and 04 August. Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels on 07 August. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 08 August. III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug Class M 40/40/35 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 95/50/25 PCAF red IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Aug 109 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 110/110/100 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 096 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 035/035-015/018-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/10 Minor storm 40/15/05 Major-severe storm 35/05/00 B. High Latitudes Active 20/25/15 Minor storm 35/20/05 Major-severe storm 40/15/00 Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.